2012 Not Bad For The Economy

The reality of the first two months of 2012 seems to be denying the worst fears of an expected year with so much fear of the collapse of Europe, the stagnation of the U.S., China slowdown and the backlash of these phenomena together in countries like Colombia. Only in December, analysts announced the collapse of the rich countries, but growth in the U.S. surprised by 3 percent in the last quarter of 2011.

In the Eurozone, although to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) envisioned a year of recession and stagnation, their way agreements for the rescue of Greece, the country with more difficulties in the region. While many say they are not fundamental solutions, the truth is that they have managed to restore calm to the stock exchanges.

In Colombia, the overall rate of the bag (IGBC) rose 17.9 percent in the first two months of the year. But what leads to a better port Colombia is also the impetus that keeps foreign direct investment (FDI), which in February was of 2,084 million, an increase of 18.4 percent over the same period in 2011. And the language challenging Iran, the European Union and the United States on a possible restriction on imports of Iranian oil was a price pressure, with an upward trend. This situation is advantageous for Colombia, which is at an all time high oil production.

According to Javier Diaz, president of Analdex (National Association for Foreign Trade), "while Europe and the U.S. have improved, still present the risk of a fall in demand-especially China-commodity". Note that the brake that is putting the Bank of the Republic with the increase in interest rates may lead the economy to grow less.

For the Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry, the action was appropriate. "The inflation rate is 3.5 percent and the Bank's intervention, at 5.25. Then the real rate is 1.75, that in no country can be considered excessive".

Roberto Steiner, director of Fedesarrollo, is more optimistic. "The outlook for Colombia in 2012 look pretty favorable. While we negatively affect growth in major partners like the U.S. and Europe, there will be a contraction of external financing or a reversal on the price of key raw materials" .